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 2022
will remain a milestone in history, when several important historical
periods have come to their end at once. Each of these periods was
defined by different interacting processes, some of them lasted for
decades and some for centuries, shaping destinies of peoples and
civilizations.
In 2022, the world has begun transition to qualitatively new stage of
its development, and this transition will determine the future of
mankind, including of states and peoples that dominated the world over
the past centuries.
In this series, I will highlight several historical processes that have
come to their end in 2022, and will try to provide readers with
prospects for future development in the coming years.
1. End of the “Prologue of History”: Historical turning point as the Finale of the Prologue of History
In 2022, the period that can be called the “Prologue of History” ended,
and this was reflected in the changes taking place before our eyes,
including changes in most important priorities and values of mankind,
in understanding and evaluation of processes of interactions and
relations between peoples and states, and methods and ways to solve
problems in international affairs.
What is happening now, in its possible consequences, can be compared
and may even exceed the turning point in history generated by the
bourgeois revolutions of the 17th and 18th centuries that redrawn the
political map of Europe, created system of colonial rule of the world
and extended influence of the Western European versions of democracy
and capitalism into the outside world.
What is happening now is comparable and may even exceed in its
consequences the turning point at the beginning of the 20th century,
launched by the First World War that resulted in revolutions that
destroyed monarchies in Europe and Russia, divided the world into
capitalist and socialist camps and led to destruction of the colonial
system.
The now ongoing processes will cause changes no less fateful, and
perhaps even surpassing in their historical consequences all previous
wars and revolutions. These changes have already begun, however,
despite their fundamental nature and ongoing tectonic shifts, the
leaders and elites are only beginning to realize them.
Life drives political elites and governments into a kind of tunnel and
forces them to move forward into darkness of the unknown, and they,
poking, jumping and hitting each other, running into the walls of
reality, breaking into blood, try to slow down and find the way to see
what lies ahead. As a result, they slowly but steadily move forward,
frightened and unable to understand their future.
Back in the 20th century, as in the previous period, many of the
changes taking place now could not be imagined. Let's dwell on some of
them.
2. Age of civilizations and demolition of old systems
In the Prologue of History, the world was understood as divided into
tribes, races, nations and nationalities, states, as well as according
to ideological and class principles or according to the type of
socio-economic formations. At the beginning of the 21st century, the
most advanced representatives of elites in developed countries began to
realize that the concept of "civilization" was becoming the most
important in world politics.
Civilizations become the main structural elements, organizational
centers of the entire system of international relations in the modern
world. The world is beginning to be perceived, considered and
understood as system of relations and interactions that is determined
and influenced to the greatest extent by socio-cultural factors that
form civilizations.
Moreover, some leaders of states began to act according to that
understanding, whether they wanted it or not, many of them under duress
and pressure of circumstances and ideology of “political rationalism”
they professed, having no opportunity or ability to explain their
actions and create any scientific or ideological foundation for their
political acts.
(You can read more about "political rationalism" in Change of Elites and the New World Order" by Valery Morozov (valerymorozov.com) and War in Ukraine and the clash of civilizations, part 3 » Valery Morozov (valerymorozov.com)
Thus, in the world, among the political, scientific and business elites
of the leading world powers, the awareness and recognition of cultural,
historical, social and religious, moral and ethical factors began to be
recognized as the most important and as determining development of not
only social sphere, science and education, cultures of different
nations, but also economy, finances, trade and politics. It began to be
understood that those factors that make up the concept of
"civilization" not only decisively influence development of peoples and
states, but also ensure stability of political systems and
effectiveness of public administration.
It is the recognition of the role and importance of cultural and
historical heritage, social capital and moral values that underlies the
civilizational approach to solving political, social and economic
issues.
Understanding of importance of cultural, historical, social, moral and
ethical factors, as well as - and this is another important element of
the civilizational approach – of interactions and relationships as
determining development of material forces, is already leading to
fundamental changes in the world economy, financial system,
international politics.
These changes are growing, breaking, sending into crisis those state
and international structures and systems that resist changes and are
unable or unwilling to change and adapt to the new reality.
Money and capital change their essence, purpose and structure. Classes
and social groups in the 21st century begin to change more and more and
radically differ from the classes and groups of the 20th century, and
even more so, of the 19th century. Political parties have lost their
ability to perform their roles and functions that they performed in the
previous period.
The entire state system, based on the party-class form of government
falls into abyss of crisis with party leaders unable to understand what
is happening and to offer any alternative. Many leaders who come to
power never wanted to be state leaders, or could not even imagine that
happening, or had no chance a few decades ago. The absence of leaders
who have an idea, a vision of the future, capable of offering their
states and peoples a way out of crises, has become the common feature
of political reality in many most developed states of the world.
The current energy, economic and financial crises, the growing
contradictions in the political and social spheres are not the result
of only the mistakes of politicians and governments. Their causes are
much deeper, and state leaders who failed to understand this, continue
to make mistakes. Their actions to curb crises only lead to deepening
and escalation of problems.
International organizations, including the UN, are becoming more and
more ineffective. They require urgent reforming, otherwise further
events will deprive them not only of their status of centers of the
world political system, but will lead them to complete degradation and
replacement by other organizations that are beginning to emerge and
actively develop. Old organizations are being replaced by new
associations that respond to new realities and changes in the world.
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Wars
in the world comprised of civilizations also become different from
previous wars, their character changes. Conflicts and wars between
civilizations, as well as conflicts within one civilization, will be
more cruel and irreconcilable than previous wars and conflicts between
nations, peoples, classes and states fought for power, material wealth,
influence in the region and the world.
Conflicts and wars within one civilization and between different
civilizations will most often be of an existential nature and will be
aimed at destroying, first of all, ideological, religious and
cultural-historical heritage and potential of the enemy, and,
consequently, all people-bearers of that heritage. Wars are becoming
unacceptable not only because leading states - centers of civilizations
- have nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction, but
because those wars can be uncompromisingly cruel and inhuman.
The war in Ukraine is the first example of such a war. However, almost
no one in Ukraine, as well as in Russia, not to mention other states
that are actively and deeper getting involved in the war in Ukraine,
has understood this fact until now. Neither in the Kremlin, nor in
Kyiv, nor in Washington, London, Berlin, Paris, Warsaw or Brussels,
leaders are aware of real threats that this war poses to nations and
states involved in the conflict, or to the Western and Russian
civilizations, as well as to the Ukrainian civilization that tries to
emerge from inside the “Russian World” as “anti-Russia” risking to
disappear…
(Later, I will focus on the war in Ukraine separately)...
So,what
caused the modern turning point that drew finish line to the
centuries-old period in the development of mankind, when power,
material values, money and knowledge capable of creating material
values and benefits, the desire to possess and multiply them, to ensure
the highest possible material standard of living lay at the center of
values, at the heart of desires, aspirations, politics, ideologies and
everyday life?
Why culture, intellect and creativity, together with moral values and
traditions, from the secondary, attached to material, from "roof
structure" over economy as the main building and foundation, began to
acquire the value of architectural idea, project design, act and
process of creation, - the main factor, determining the meaning and
future of the whole creation, the entire socio-economic formation,
including its “walls” and "foundation"?
Why did development through interactions and relationships from those
attached to material objects begin to become in the world of politics,
economics, including business and social relations, into the main
method and instrument of changing and developing the world?
Why did civilizations in modern world become the main structural
elements of the system of organization of the international community?
3. Social capital of the new technological order
By the beginning of the 21st century, the productive forces in
the leading countries of the world reached the level that required
qualitative changes in the system of economic production and social
relations.
Firstly, the further development of science, artificial intelligence,
technologies, including information technologies, as well as industry
and agricultural production, trade, transportation and distribution of
manufactured products and services of the new technological order,
turned out to be in clear and direct dependence on the factors that
make up foundations of all civilizations: culture, education,
information support and creative potential of people, as well as moral
values and traditional system of social relationships.
In new technological order, the intellectual contribution by people to
creation of capital has noticeably squeezed out, and in some new areas
has exceeded the contribution of materials, energy costs, labor, as
well as artificial intelligence.
Those who believed that artificial intelligence can replace human
intellect ended up in the category that is to be replaced by AI. It
appeared that artificial intelligence itself and its development
required higher intellectual level and creative potential of people,
the creators of artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence turned
out to be able to replace only those labor resources that are not
capable and are not intended to bring maximum intellectual content to
the product being produced.
Effective development of modern science, technology and industries
turned out to be possible only on the basis of qualitative increase in
cultural, intellectual and social factors in industrial and social
relations.
Secondly, in the 20th century, and especially at the beginning of the
21st century, there was rapid expansion and change of consumers role in
production.
The increasing role of social factor in economy and socio-political
systems was expressed, for example, in the fact that the participation
of people who are neither founders of companies and organizations, nor
their shareholders, nor participants in production process, including
management, but are only users and consumers, turned out to become the
factor that to increasing degree determines the value of both the
product produced and the entire production.
In the 21st century, consumer becomes the main, determining participant
in production process and entire economic sphere. The capitalization of
companies of new technological order, for example, those providing
services as Internet resources, turned out to be increasingly dependent
not only on the quality of the product itself, that is, on the Internet
resource, not only on the team of company employees who ensure
operation and functioning of the Internet resource, but mainly on its
users, on the level of their participation, on the content of their
materials and performances and on accessibility, popularity and
influence of that content on other consumers.
It is the quality of user’s materials, their activity and level of
interaction between consumers, all participants in the process that
become the most important factors that determine social value of entire
project and capitalization of information resource.
The consequence of this is that any action directed against any group
of users immediately strikes a blow to producer, and its market value
decreases depending on the influence and contribution of the user group
against which the action was directed.
To be continued...
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