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 Analysis of the results of Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow
The state propaganda and mass media usually try to present official
visits of leaders more significant and productive than they really are.
The state visit of Xi Jinping to Moscow and his meeting with Vladimir
Putin appeared to be an exception.
The Russian and Chinese state news services, as well as mass media,
demonstrating strange restraint, made no attempt to exaggerate or even
show in full the real significance of the Russian - Chinese summit.
Moreover, confusion, signs of misunderstanding and misbelief appeared
in the Russian political elites and among the state officials.
However, the essence of what happened during negotiations in Moscow was
succinctly expressed by Chinese leader Xi Jinping when he said goodbye
to Vladimir Putin, before taking seat in his limousine standing at the
front doors of the Grand Kremlin Palace.
Their last conversation was recorded by TV reporters. Xi told Putin:
“The changes are taking place now that have not been seen for hundred
years. When we are together, we are driving these changes.” Putin
replied: "I agree." Xi shook Putin's hand and ended the meeting with
the words: "Take care of yourself and be safe, my dear friend."
What was behind this scene, and why during the visit and after Xi
Jinping's departure, the faces of the Russian officials expressed not
only satisfaction with the results of the Chinese leader's visit to
Moscow, but also concern and anxiety?
1. The Moscow-Beijing Axis and the New World Order
There were several circumstances that made the
visit of the Chairman of the People's Republic of China to Moscow
special. That were the 40th talks between Putin and Xi in the decade.
This was Xi Jinping's ninth visit to Moscow, and most important, this
was the second official state visit of Chinese leader to Russia, - the
first one took place exactly ten years ago, in 2013, - although,
according to diplomatic protocol, the head of state makes only one
official state visit to another country during his term in office.
With the official status of the state visit, Xi wanted to emphasize
that in ten years since his previous state visit, China, like Russia,
has become qualitatively different state, and that this visit will
bring relations between Beijing and Moscow on qualitatively new level.
That will be relations not just between two state-powers, but between
two great civilizations supporting each other. As Xi Jinping put it in
his article published in the Russian media few days before the visit,
Russia and China have become "fellow travelers" (VM - the translation
does not fully convey the meaning that Xi put in Chinese).
The peculiarity of the visit was that the visit took place on March
20-22, the dates that Beijing insisted on, but that dates did not quite
suit Moscow. The Kremlin wanted the visit to take place after March 23,
because on March 20, the day Xi Jinping arrived, Vladimir Putin had to
attend and to speak at the plenary session "Russia-Africa in Multipolar
World" of the Second International Parliamentary Conference "Russia -
Africa" that was held in Moscow exactly at that time, in which 40
parliamentary delegations from African countries took part.
Speaking at the Conference few hours before the arrival of XI Jinping,
Vladimir Putin stated that "Africa will become one of the leaders of
the emerging new multipolar world order." After the speech, Putin was
forced to hasten to prepare for the first meeting with the Chinese
leader, the most important negotiations, face to face behind closed
doors, that lasted 4.5 hours.
Beijing insisted that the visit of the Chinese leader to Russia should
begin exactly on March 20, on the day of the vernal equinox, that for
the Chinese civilizational mentality, as well as for many other peoples
of Asia, for example, the Iranians, is symbolic point to start
something important. Xi expressed this in his article in a formula
typical for Chinese mentality: “The year begins with spring, and
success begins with action.”
There are other features that distinguish Xi and Putin's meeting in
Moscow in March 2023 from their previous meetings, such as their
meeting in Beijing in February 2022, a few days before the start of the
Olympics in China, followed by Russian invasion in Ukraine. At their
meeting in 2022, Xi and Putin called on the West, primarily the United
States, for change in the world order, for creation of multipolar world
and new system of international relations, for equality of world
civilizations.
This time, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin did not appeal to the USA or
NATO. They resolved issues of bilateral cooperation, as well as
problems of international relations, including the settlement of the
conflict in Ukraine, in bilateral negotiations that lasted two days.
Their personal meetings in Moscow lasted 10.5 hours, including 4.5
hours, as I have already noted, in private.
It was clear signal to the whole world, not only to the West, but also
to the Russian and Chinese partners and potential allies, that the
world new order has been created and has begun to operate. That was
said in a manner typical of Putin and Xi: quietly for those who need to
hear, and as a signal, like an echo, for those who need time to
understand what happened.
2. Pillars and Structures of the New World Order
The alliance of Russia and China has become a
fait accompli. The existing system of international relations has
split, it was divided, and the new system is being created within the
existing one. This new system is already operating according to
“matryoshka”, the Russian doll, principle traditional for Russia and
China.
The Moscow-Beijing Axis has already become the organizational center of
the new zone created within the existing system of international
relations to transform it into new world system from within.
Those who share the position of Moscow and Beijing can join them at any
moment. Those who want to wait and see from outside, or who cannot join
for any other reason, can wait. Those who are against may disagree,
oppose, fight, but then the new order will be created without their
participation. Those who join earlier and start building it together
with Russia and China will receive advantages, because their interests
and vision will be laid in the foundations of the new world order for
the “next hundred years”. That is how the new zone created as smaller
“matryoshka”, the Russian doll, will gradually transform and absorb the
remnants of the larger old “matryoshka”.
The mechanism approved by Xi and Putin for the formation, expansion and
development of the new order zone has also become clear. China and
Russia will use the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS
as political and economic platforms and organizational systems.
The members of the SCO, apart from China and Russia, are currently
India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and
Uzbekistan. Afghanistan, Belarus, Mongolia are the observers. The
territory of the SCO countries occupies 65% of the territory of
Eurasia, and the population exceeds 3.5 billion, more than half of the
world's population.
BRICS
was created by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
Candidates awaiting admission to the BRICS are Iran, Argentina, and
Algeria. Another 16 countries have already expressed their desire to
join the BRICS, including Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Turkey,
Egypt, Thailand, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Greece, and Syria, as well as the
SCO countries that were not included in the BRICS yet.
Now the BRICS countries occupy 26.7% of the world's land, they account
for 41.5% of the world population, and their GDP has already exceeded
the GDP of the G7 countries and reached 32% of the world GDP. In case
of admission of applicants by 2024, BRICS share in the world's
population will exceed 70%, they will occupy more than 65% of the
planet's land area, and the share of GDP will exceed 60%, or may be
even more depending on the growth of their GDP in the coming years.
At the same time, Russia and China intend to fight for the new world
order using existing international organizations, primarily the UN and
the G20. In this struggle, the SCO and BRICS should play important role
as instruments for pursuing joint policy and reforming, for example, of
the UN. And again, Moscow and Beijing apply the “matryoshka” principle:
the SCO and BRICS will operate within other systems, primarily the UN
and the G20, not opposing them, but trying to reform, change and adapt
them to the new order from within.
The possibilities and potential of the BRICS were demonstrated by
Russia and China shortly before Xi’s visit to Moscow, when
representatives of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran, two countries
that intend to become members of the BRICS, but that have been in
confrontation for decades, the countries that determine the future of
the Middle East, signed agreement on restoring of diplomatic relations
and ending hostilities. That agreement opened the way for interaction
between these two key states in the region and the main suppliers of
oil and gas in the world, including to China, and from now onwards,
Saudi Arabia and Iran will trade with China for yuan.
In the process of normalizing relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia,
both Moscow, especially at the first stage, and Beijing played active
role, but the final stage was led by Beijing. Moscow remained in the
shadows. And this is interesting fact that shows that China and Russia
have their own areas of responsibility. They stand and oppose the West
not “shoulder to shoulder”, not as one front, not as Greek phalanx, but
“back-to-back”, as Xi Jinping put it.
The Kremlin gave Beijing the place of the leader of peacekeeping
process in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, because, first,
that status was more important to Xi Jinping than to Putin. Symbols are
important to China, so Xi took the lead in the process of restructuring
international relations immediately after his re-election. Second, the
tension between the West and Russia has reached high level, and Putin
does not need to attract additional flurry of attacks. He needs to deal
with Ukraine and NATO, and he diverted attention from himself by
dispersing attention, fury and efforts of the West to counteract the
construction of the new world order by turning them towards China.
In addition, the next stage of the peace process has already been
prepared - the restoration of diplomatic relations between Syria and
Saudi Arabia, as well as other Arab countries, and in that process,
Moscow will become the main peacemaker, in any case. Not surprisingly,
the day after Xi Jinping left Moscow, news outlets reported that Syria
and Saudi Arabia were ready to exchange embassies, ten years after
breaking off relations.
Relying on the already established and successfully developing
international alliances, BRICS and SCO, that China and Russia can turn
into supporting structures or foundation for new world order, makes the
visit of the Xi Jinping to Moscow even more significant for the Kremlin
and personally for Vladimir Putin.
Then why did the faces of the members of the Russian delegation,
including the face of Putin, in addition to satisfaction, constantly
expressed concern and internal tension?
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3. In the face of the inevitable
Now we should pay attention to another feature of Xi Jinping's visit to
Moscow. Unlike Xi Jinping's first official visit to Moscow in 2013,
exactly 10
years ago, this time his meeting in the Kremlin was organized rather
modestly. The welcome ceremony was neither particularly solemn, nor
magnificent. There was no parade of the troops of the Kremlin Regiment
on the Cathedral Square of the Kremlin, as it was ten years ago.
The impression was that although all the main documents that were to be
signed in Moscow had been agreed and worked out in advance, before the
visit, there were important topics that the working groups could not
agree on. These topics were to be discussed by the leaders of China and
Russia personally, directly, behind closed doors. And these topics were
fundamental and most significant. Moreover, the impression was that the
Kremlin was not sure that Putin would be able to reach understanding
with Xi.
If you look at the signed documents, it becomes clear that cooperation
between Russia and China is reaching a new level.
China is ready to
increase not only the investments in the Russian economy, primarily in
the areas and industries that require lot of energy, materials, natural
resources, but also in the development of industries based on the
latest technologies, primarily weapons production, nuclear energy, and
space technology. Thus, China recognized that it needs not only Russian
resources, but also development of cooperation in science and
science-intensive industries based on the powerful scientific base
created in Russia in Soviet times, preserved in post-Soviet period, and
resurrected in modern Russia.
This is because the new technological order that most of the developed
countries, including China and Russia, are now rising to, requires the
priority development of areas for application of human intelligence,
its potential, creative and social. The human intelligence, its
interaction and cooperation become the essence of new capital. Those
countries that slow down development of human intelligence and
creativity and focus on, for example, artificial intelligence or old
traditional industries, will miss the chance to get into the forefront
of development and go second league.
The areas of application of human creativity already now bring greatest
effect, capital, and profit. It is around them, as pillars, that future
social and political systems will be formed and developed. That is why
the role of culture, science, creativity, moral principles that form
interactions in society, that is, cultural and historical factors, will
rapidly increase, providing domination to civilizations as social
systems, over the existing state forms of social management,
transferring state to subordinate position of executive instrument.
Old and traditional sectors of the economy will not be able to maximize
profits.
Society and civilization will not be interested in this. The
products of traditional industries should be accessible to people and
new sectors of the economy and spheres of social life. The most
developed countries will provide accessibility and minimum prices to
what is produced by the old and traditional sectors of economy,
allowing new economy to benefit, as well as to benefit people, by
giving them opportunity to focus on activities that require highly
developed human intelligence.
However, the traditional branches of industry and agriculture will also be able to develop under two conditions:
First, if deep processing and production of products is concentrated in
territories provided with cheap energy resources and raw materials,
that eliminate expensive transportation and other redundant costs,
while maintaining and transforming transport system for delivery of
final products. The need for human resources in the old, traditional
industries will decrease, because place and functions of labour will be
taken over by robotics and artificial intelligence.
This will result in relocation and concentration of industrial
production with high level of energy and material consumption to
countries rich in energy and natural resources, such as Russia,
Kazakhstan, Iran, the USA, Australia, as well as to some regions of
Latin America and Africa. The ongoing transfer of enterprises in the
metallurgical, chemical industries, as well as mechanical engineering
and car industries from European countries to the United States and
China is natural and inevitable process that received additional and
strong impetus by the sanctions against Russia.
China understands well what is happening and is ready to invest in
Russia, including in the industries that produce not only for
consumption in Russia, or for export to third countries, but also for
import by China.
However, in China, powerful economy has already been created, including
by the world transnational corporations, linking together both
traditional industries and most advanced. Chinese economy is based on
huge human resources, requires maintaining high rates of development
and cannot be relocated to other countries soon without huge social
tensions. The Chinese communist regime that primarily protects
interests of the traditional working class, cannot allow this.
China needs to develop all industries that are profitable and of
strategic importance. This requires the import of energy resources, and
Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other states that can supply resources
reliably and inexpensively allowing China to ensure necessary
profitability of traditional industries, should play their important
role.
Russia appeared unable to fulfill the tasks assigned to it for
the supply of resources to China, as well as to other countries of East
Asia, not because Russia does not have these resources, but because the
transportation system, including by rail and roads, pipelines, and
power-grid lines, does not have necessary capacity. Russia has become
hostage to its two hundred years orientation towards the West and is
not ready for new challenges.
To meet the needs of China, Russia needs to build several times more
railways, highways, pipelines and electric power networks in the vast
Eastern regions of Russia over a period of several years, much more
that was built in the entire history of the Russian Empire and the
USSR. It is necessary to develop the system of maritime transportation
at incredible pace, including along the Northern Sea Route.
During the time after the collapse of the USSR, the potential created
earlier was partly lost and has not yet been fully restored. Recovery
began in recent years and is still going on not so much in the
interests of the country, people, regions, but in the interests of
political and business clans. Suffice it to recall the story of the
arrest and conviction of the Governor of the Khabarovsk Territory
Sergei Furgal, who dared to put the interests of the region and people
above the interests of the St. Petersburg clan and local ruling clans,
including criminal groups.
The conflict with the West and sanctions forced Russia to turn to the
East. Even if the relations with the West are normalized, Russia will
no longer be able to stop accelerated development in its Eastern
direction, as well as in Southern, towards India. It became inevitable.
Russia, the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin personally and his government
cannot escape the tasks facing them. However, the turn to China, the
Southeast Asia and India requires not only enormous efforts and
concentration of resources, including human, but also huge investments.
There is money for this in Russia, but not enough, and China and India
are ready to help. However, such turn requires not only money,
investments, resources, but also political elite, entrepreneurs and
management capable of organizing this breakthrough, but Russia has
problems with that. And this is understood not only by Putin, but also
by the political and business elites themselves, by the Government of
the Russian Federation and the State Duma.
The challenges they face scare them...
4. How many people work in your company?
Here I would like to recall one episode from my life. In the early
2000s, when China was just picking up the pace of development, the
Chinese delegation arrived in Moscow, that included General Managers of
four Chinese largest state-owned construction corporations.
The delegation was met by Vladimir Resin, at that time First Deputy
Mayor of Moscow, head of the Complex of Urban Planning Policy and
Construction. To meet the Chines delegation, Resin invited heads of the
largest Moscow construction companies, by that time private, but
created in Soviet times as state organizations, the main enterprises of
the Moscow construction complex. Among them were the General Managers
of two corporations that carried out construction works in the State
Kremlin Palace.
My company was the General designer and General
contractor on that project in the Kremlin, and I was also invited to
join Vladimir Resin and managers of the former Soviet state
corporations facing the Chinese delegation.
In those years, the former Soviet leaders still retained attitude
towards Chinese as “little brothers”, and Resin, as well as the Russian
builders present at the meeting, looked at the Chinese patronizingly,
although they already knew about ongoing construction boom in China.
At some point, Resin, waving his hand in the direction of General
Manager of one of the Chinese construction corporations, asked:
- And how many builders work, for example, in your company?
“Thirty-five million builders,” he replied.
Silence, long and full of surprise...
It was almost twenty years ago...
(To be continued)
Valery Morozov
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